NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BALL BUFF
Points 75.8 68.8
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 20.9
Points From Free Throws 16.3 10.1
Shooting BALL BUFF
Field Goals Made 25.9 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 60.4
Field Goal % 43.9% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 16.3 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 14.1
Free Throw % 77.8% 71.6%
Ball Control BALL BUFF
Rebounds 37.2 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 9.1
Turnovers 10.2 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.6
Steals 5.3 5.9
Fouls 11.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BALL BUFF
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 69.3
% of Possessions with BALL BUFF
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 28.1%
Player Fouled 21.6% 16.1%
Turnover 14.2% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BALL BUFF
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 24.9%