NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU UVA
Points 58.4 70.0
Total Points   128.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 14.1 21.4
Points From Free Throws 12.4 10.4
Shooting LOU UVA
Field Goals Made 20.6 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 56.5
Field Goal % 38.9% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 26.6% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 12.4 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 16.8
Free Throw % 74.2% 62.1%
Ball Control LOU UVA
Rebounds 34.8 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 7.8
Turnovers 12.1 7.5
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.7
Steals 4.1 7.7
Fouls 12.7 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU UVA
Total Possessions 66.2
Effective Scoring Chances 62.8 66.5
% of Possessions with LOU UVA
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 25.5%
Player Fouled 20.9% 19.2%
Turnover 18.3% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 11.6% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU UVA
Shot Blocked 10.2% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 23.0%