NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LOU MIA
Points 71.8 80.3
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 29.9
Points From Free Throws 12.7 12.0
Shooting LOU MIA
Field Goals Made 26.0 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 59.1
Field Goal % 43.5% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 12.7 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 16.8
Free Throw % 74.2% 71.6%
Ball Control LOU MIA
Rebounds 34.0 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.2
Turnovers 11.6 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.2
Steals 5.9 7.7
Fouls 14.0 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LOU MIA
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 69.5
% of Possessions with LOU MIA
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 31.5%
Player Fouled 18.3% 19.3%
Turnover 16.0% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LOU MIA
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 25.0%