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Louisville at Michigan St
Wed Dec 1, 2021
7:15pm ET
East Lansing, MI
Louisville at Michigan St: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Michigan St. by 4, Total Points: 137.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | LOU | adv | MSU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 13-18-1 | 19-15-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 9-11-1 | 11-10-1 | |
| Streak | W1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 3-7-0 | 5-5-0 | |
| Home | 5-12-1 | 11-7-0 | |
| Away | 8-6-0 | 8-8-1 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Maryland BC | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Chattanooga | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Coppin St | -17.5 | W by 20 | +2.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Texas | +17.5 | L by 1 | +16.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Indiana | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | N Mex State | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Bellarmine | -5.5 | W by 5 | -0.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | VA Tech | +14.0 | L by 7 | +7.0 |
| 12/09 | Away | DePaul | +2.0 | L by 7 | -5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Arkansas St | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Pepperdine | -1.0 | W by 22 | +21.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Kentucky | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Virginia | +15.5 | L by 24 | -8.5 |
| 01/06 | Home | Pittsburgh | +8.5 | L by 13 | -4.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Miami | +16.5 | W by 9 | +25.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | NC State | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | N Carolina | +21.0 | L by 16 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Wake Forest | +16.0 | L by 25 | -9.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Duke | +14.0 | L by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Virginia | +9.0 | L by 17 | -8.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Clemson | +16.0 | L by 6 | +10.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Florida St | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Syracuse | +8.5 | L by 2 | +6.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | GA Tech | -1.0 | W by 12 | +11.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Boston Col | +9.5 | L by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | +12.5 | L by 27 | -14.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Notre Dame | -3.0 | L by 22 | -25.0 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +20.5 | L by 25 | -4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 6 | -1.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | VA Tech | +7.5 | L by 16 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | Boston Col | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
Michigan St Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | James Mad | -16.5 | L by 3 | -19.5 |
| 11/09 | Home | S Indiana | -32.0 | W by 23 | -9.0 |
| 11/14 | Neutral | Duke | +4.0 | L by 9 | -5.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | Butler | -10.0 | W by 20 | +10.0 |
| 11/19 | Home | Alcorn St | -23.0 | W by 32 | +9.0 |
| 11/23 | Neutral | Arizona | +5.5 | L by 6 | -0.5 |
| 11/28 | Home | GA Southern | -28.5 | W by 31 | +2.5 |
| 12/05 | Home | Wisconsin | -5.5 | L by 13 | -18.5 |
| 12/10 | Away | Nebraska | -3.5 | L by 7 | -10.5 |
| 12/16 | Neutral | Baylor | +3.5 | W by 24 | +27.5 |
| 12/18 | Home | Oakland | -15.5 | W by 17 | +1.5 |
| 12/21 | Home | Stony Brook | -22.5 | W by 44 | +21.5 |
| 12/30 | Home | Indiana St | -8.5 | W by 12 | +3.5 |
| 01/04 | Home | Penn St | -13.5 | W by 31 | +17.5 |
| 01/07 | Away | Northwestern | -3.0 | L by 14 | -17.0 |
| 01/11 | Away | Illinois | +3.0 | L by 3 | 0.0 |
| 01/14 | Home | Rutgers | -10.5 | W by 18 | +7.5 |
| 01/18 | Home | Minnesota | -12.0 | W by 10 | -2.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Maryland | -1.0 | W by 2 | +1.0 |
| 01/26 | Away | Wisconsin | +3.0 | L by 15 | -12.0 |
| 01/30 | Home | Michigan | -12.0 | W by 19 | +7.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Maryland | -6.0 | W by 9 | +3.0 |
| 02/06 | Away | Minnesota | -3.0 | L by 3 | -6.0 |
| 02/10 | Home | Illinois | -3.5 | W by 8 | +4.5 |
| 02/14 | Away | Penn St | -3.0 | W by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Michigan | -6.0 | W by 10 | +4.0 |
| 02/20 | Home | Iowa | -9.5 | L by 7 | -16.5 |
| 02/25 | Home | Ohio St | -10.0 | L by 3 | -13.0 |
| 03/02 | Away | Purdue | +10.0 | L by 6 | +4.0 |
| 03/06 | Home | Northwestern | -9.0 | W by 4 | -5.0 |
| 03/10 | Away | Indiana | -3.5 | L by 1 | -4.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Minnesota | -7.0 | W by 10 | +3.0 |
| 03/15 | Neutral | Purdue | +7.5 | L by 5 | +2.5 |
| 03/21 | Neutral | Miss State | -1.5 | W by 18 | +16.5 |
| 03/23 | Neutral | N Carolina | +4.0 | L by 16 | -12.0 |
| MSU -4.0 | Open | -5.5 | High | -5.5 |
| Last | -4.5 | Low | -4.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2016-2017 NCAA Basketball season there have been 2975 games where the closing line favored the home team by 3 to 5 points. In these games:
- The team like Michigan St won the game 1906 times (64.1%).
- The team like Louisville won the game 1069 times (35.9%).
- The team like Michigan St did better against the spread, going 1465-1430-80 (50.6% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.3 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2018-2019 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1598 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 1.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 836-737-25 (53.1% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.3 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -4.0 | -3.5 | -4.0 |
| Open | -5.0 | -5.0 | -4.5 |
| History | |||
| 12/01 07:14 PM | -- | -3.5 | -- |
| 12/01 07:13 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 07:04 PM | -- | -3.5 | -- |
| 12/01 06:53 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 06:38 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 06:14 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/01 06:04 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/01 05:50 PM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 05:23 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 04:59 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 04:44 PM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 12/01 04:14 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 03:32 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 02:38 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 02:15 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/01 02:05 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/01 01:47 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 01:38 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 01:25 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/01 01:08 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 12:55 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/01 12:16 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 12:15 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/01 11:53 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 11:07 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 10:31 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 10:04 AM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/01 09:49 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 09:35 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/01 09:34 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 08:58 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 08:37 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 08:01 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 07:25 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 06:34 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 12/01 05:14 AM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 12/01 04:58 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 04:43 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 02:58 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/01 02:44 AM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 12/01 01:45 AM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 11/30 10:07 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/30 09:49 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/30 06:14 PM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 11/30 05:58 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
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