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Louisville at NC State
Sat Dec 4, 2021
2:00pm ET
Raleigh, NC
Louisville at NC State: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Louisville by 4.5, Total Points: 138.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | LOU | adv | NCST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 13-18-1 | 20-20-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 9-11-1 | 13-12-1 | |
| Streak | W1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 3-7-0 | 7-3-0 | |
| Home | 5-12-1 | 8-9-0 | |
| Away | 8-6-0 | 12-11-1 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Maryland BC | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Chattanooga | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Coppin St | -17.5 | W by 20 | +2.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Texas | +17.5 | L by 1 | +16.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Indiana | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | N Mex State | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Bellarmine | -5.5 | W by 5 | -0.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | VA Tech | +14.0 | L by 7 | +7.0 |
| 12/09 | Away | DePaul | +2.0 | L by 7 | -5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Arkansas St | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Pepperdine | -1.0 | W by 22 | +21.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Kentucky | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Virginia | +15.5 | L by 24 | -8.5 |
| 01/06 | Home | Pittsburgh | +8.5 | L by 13 | -4.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Miami | +16.5 | W by 9 | +25.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | NC State | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | N Carolina | +21.0 | L by 16 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Wake Forest | +16.0 | L by 25 | -9.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Duke | +14.0 | L by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Virginia | +9.0 | L by 17 | -8.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Clemson | +16.0 | L by 6 | +10.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Florida St | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Syracuse | +8.5 | L by 2 | +6.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | GA Tech | -1.0 | W by 12 | +11.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Boston Col | +9.5 | L by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | +12.5 | L by 27 | -14.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Notre Dame | -3.0 | L by 22 | -25.0 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +20.5 | L by 25 | -4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 6 | -1.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | VA Tech | +7.5 | L by 16 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | Boston Col | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
NC State Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Citadel | -21.0 | W by 13 | -8.0 |
| 11/10 | Home | Abl Christian | -10.5 | W by 20 | +9.5 |
| 11/17 | Home | Charl South | -24.5 | W by 34 | +9.5 |
| 11/23 | Neutral | Vanderbilt | -7.5 | W by 6 | -1.5 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | BYU | +6.5 | L by 9 | -2.5 |
| 11/28 | Away | Mississippi | +2.0 | L by 20 | -18.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Boston Col | +2.5 | W by 6 | +8.5 |
| 12/06 | Home | Maryland ES | -26.5 | W by 32 | +5.5 |
| 12/12 | Home | TN Martin | -19.5 | W by 14 | -5.5 |
| 12/16 | Neutral | Tennessee | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| 12/20 | Home | Saint Louis | -11.5 | W by 12 | +0.5 |
| 12/23 | Home | Detroit | -23.0 | W by 17 | -6.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Notre Dame | -5.0 | W by 2 | -3.0 |
| 01/06 | Home | Virginia | -1.0 | W by 16 | +15.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | N Carolina | +3.0 | L by 13 | -10.0 |
| 01/13 | Away | Louisville | -7.5 | W by 6 | -1.5 |
| 01/16 | Home | Wake Forest | -2.0 | W by 7 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Home | VA Tech | -4.5 | L by 6 | -10.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | Virginia | +6.0 | L by 6 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Away | Syracuse | -1.0 | L by 12 | -13.0 |
| 01/30 | Home | Miami | -4.5 | W by 6 | +1.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | GA Tech | -8.0 | W by 6 | -2.0 |
| 02/07 | Home | Pittsburgh | -3.5 | L by 3 | -6.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | Wake Forest | +8.0 | L by 4 | +4.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Clemson | +8.0 | W by 1 | +9.0 |
| 02/20 | Home | Syracuse | -6.0 | L by 4 | -10.0 |
| 02/24 | Home | Boston Col | -5.0 | W by 11 | +6.0 |
| 02/27 | Away | Florida St | +3.0 | L by 7 | -4.0 |
| 03/02 | Away | N Carolina | +11.0 | L by 9 | +2.0 |
| 03/04 | Home | Duke | +6.5 | L by 15 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Away | Pittsburgh | +6.5 | L by 8 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | Louisville | -9.5 | W by 9 | -0.5 |
| 03/13 | Neutral | Syracuse | +1.5 | W by 18 | +19.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Duke | +11.0 | W by 5 | +16.0 |
| 03/15 | Neutral | Virginia | +2.5 | W by 8 | +10.5 |
| 03/16 | Neutral | N Carolina | +10.0 | W by 8 | +18.0 |
| 03/21 | Neutral | Texas Tech | +5.0 | W by 13 | +18.0 |
| 03/23 | Neutral | Oakland | -6.5 | W by 6 | -0.5 |
| 03/29 | Neutral | Marquette | +7.5 | W by 9 | +16.5 |
| 03/31 | Neutral | Duke | +7.0 | W by 12 | +19.0 |
| 04/06 | Neutral | Purdue | +9.5 | L by 13 | -3.5 |
| LOU -4.5 | Open | -1.5 | High | -4.5 |
| Last | -4.0 | Low | -1.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2016-2017 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1513 games where the closing line favored the away team by 3.5 to 5.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Louisville won the game 975 times (64.4%).
- The team like NC State won the game 538 times (35.6%).
- The team like NC State did better against the spread, going 748-742-23 (50.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.4 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2018-2019 NCAA Basketball season there have been 244 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 3 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like NC State did better against the spread, going 124-112-8 (52.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.9 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -4.5 | -4.0 | -4.5 |
| Open | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| History | |||
| 12/04 01:58 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 01:55 PM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 12/04 01:54 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/04 12:49 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 12:26 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 11:53 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 10:28 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 09:43 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 08:44 AM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 12/04 08:35 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 12/04 08:31 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 08:04 AM | -- | -3.5 | -- |
| 12/04 07:43 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 07:31 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 04:25 AM | -- | -- | -3.5 |
| 12/04 01:14 AM | -- | -3.5 | -- |
| 12/04 01:01 AM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 12:45 AM | -- | -- | -2.0 |
| 12/03 10:35 PM | -- | -- | -2.5 |
| 12/03 09:22 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/03 08:24 PM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 12/03 07:54 PM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 12/03 07:35 PM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/03 07:34 PM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 12/03 06:54 PM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 12/03 06:49 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/03 06:28 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/03 06:04 PM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 12/03 05:53 PM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
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