NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA MICH
Points 67.1 59.9
Total Points   127.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.6 29.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 20.3
Points From Free Throws 8.8 10.5
Shooting UVA MICH
Field Goals Made 26.0 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 54.5
Field Goal % 43.4% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 42.6 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 8.8 10.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 14.8
Free Throw % 62.1% 70.8%
Ball Control UVA MICH
Rebounds 33.8 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 9.9
Turnovers 6.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 5.7 3.4
Steals 7.7 3.1
Fouls 12.6 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA MICH
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 63.2
% of Possessions with UVA MICH
2 Point Attempt 56.5% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 28.5%
Player Fouled 17.9% 19.3%
Turnover 9.5% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 11.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA MICH
Shot Blocked 6.4% 9.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 28.3%