NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU UK
Points 63.9 88.3
Total Points   152.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 29.4
Points From Free Throws 12.2 15.9
Shooting CMU UK
Field Goals Made 22.4 31.3
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 65.5
Field Goal % 35.0% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 38.7% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 26.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 12.2 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 20.4
Free Throw % 67.1% 78.2%
Ball Control CMU UK
Rebounds 35.4 45.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 33.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 11.7
Turnovers 11.1 8.3
Blocked Shots 3.2 7.4
Steals 4.6 6.5
Fouls 14.6 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU UK
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 77.8
% of Possessions with CMU UK
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 29.8%
Player Fouled 18.5% 19.6%
Turnover 14.9% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU UK
Shot Blocked 11.5% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 32.1%