NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA UNC
Points 84.2 86.2
Total Points   170.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 30.9 22.9
Points From Free Throws 15.7 21.7
Shooting ALA UNC
Field Goals Made 29.1 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 65.3 64.8
Field Goal % 44.5% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 29.5 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 15.7 21.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 28.7
Free Throw % 76.4% 75.4%
Ball Control ALA UNC
Rebounds 37.5 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 12.7
Turnovers 9.9 8.3
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.3
Steals 4.7 6.2
Fouls 18.4 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA UNC
Total Possessions 77.1
Effective Scoring Chances 77.3 81.6
% of Possessions with ALA UNC
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 33.1% 24.5%
Player Fouled 22.2% 23.9%
Turnover 12.9% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA UNC
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 31.8%