NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP VAN
Points 69.0 74.3
Total Points   143.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 26.7 19.2
Points From Free Throws 8.9 13.6
Shooting VALP VAN
Field Goals Made 25.6 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 60.1
Field Goal % 41.8% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 8.9 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 19.3
Free Throw % 70.2% 70.7%
Ball Control VALP VAN
Rebounds 34.0 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 11.1
Turnovers 9.8 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.5
Steals 4.1 5.8
Fouls 14.5 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: Valparaiso

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP VAN
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 72.1
% of Possessions with VALP VAN
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 25.0%
Player Fouled 16.8% 20.8%
Turnover 14.0% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP VAN
Shot Blocked 4.3% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 30.7%