NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCCU LOU
Points 71.7 79.0
Total Points   150.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 16.5
Points From Free Throws 16.4 20.3
Shooting NCCU LOU
Field Goals Made 24.1 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 53.8
Field Goal % 44.8% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 60.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 16.4 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 27.4
Free Throw % 69.0% 74.2%
Ball Control NCCU LOU
Rebounds 29.3 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 10.3
Turnovers 11.1 10.5
Blocked Shots 1.8 3.2
Steals 6.2 4.5
Fouls 18.9 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCCU LOU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 71.0
% of Possessions with NCCU LOU
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 22.7%
Player Fouled 22.7% 26.6%
Turnover 15.6% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCCU LOU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 32.8%