NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MORE ILST
Points 68.0 62.8
Total Points   130.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 14.6
Points From Free Throws 9.6 14.2
Shooting MORE ILST
Field Goals Made 24.8 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 53.3
Field Goal % 44.9% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 28.8 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 27.6%
Free Throws Made 9.6 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.2 19.5
Free Throw % 73.2% 73.0%
Ball Control MORE ILST
Rebounds 35.0 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.6
Turnovers 10.3 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.9 1.8
Steals 4.3 5.0
Fouls 15.9 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MORE ILST
Total Possessions 64.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.8 64.7
% of Possessions with MORE ILST
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 35.1% 23.7%
Player Fouled 19.5% 24.5%
Turnover 15.9% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MORE ILST
Shot Blocked 3.5% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 25.2%