NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA FRES
Points 70.3 69.6
Total Points   139.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.0 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 29.1 21.1
Points From Free Throws 9.2 13.1
Shooting AFA FRES
Field Goals Made 25.7 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 49.9
Field Goal % 48.2% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 27.9 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 56.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.4 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 9.2 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 13.4 18.9
Free Throw % 68.7% 69.6%
Ball Control AFA FRES
Rebounds 28.4 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 7.3
Turnovers 10.3 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.2
Steals 5.6 5.3
Fouls 14.8 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA FRES
Total Possessions 64.5
Effective Scoring Chances 61.8 60.9
% of Possessions with AFA FRES
2 Point Attempt 38.3% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 34.9% 25.5%
Player Fouled 20.9% 23.0%
Turnover 15.9% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA FRES
Shot Blocked 4.5% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 26.0%