NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AFA NEV
Points 59.9 74.0
Total Points   133.9
Points From 2-Pointers 23.7 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 19.3
Points From Free Throws 11.1 20.4
Shooting AFA NEV
Field Goals Made 20.2 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 50.0 45.9
Field Goal % 40.4% 51.4%
2 Pointers Made 11.8 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 25.1 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 41.2%
Free Throws Made 11.1 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 28.6
Free Throw % 68.7% 71.2%
Ball Control AFA NEV
Rebounds 26.0 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 19.0 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 8.3
Turnovers 11.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.3
Steals 4.9 5.7
Fouls 20.1 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AFA NEV
Total Possessions 64.4
Effective Scoring Chances 59.8 63.3
% of Possessions with AFA NEV
2 Point Attempt 34.5% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 34.4% 21.2%
Player Fouled 24.1% 31.1%
Turnover 18.0% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken AFA NEV
Shot Blocked 7.2% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 30.3%