NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL TEX
Points 79.2 76.0
Total Points   155.2
Points From 2-Pointers 39.4 46.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 17.5
Points From Free Throws 18.3 12.1
Shooting ILL TEX
Field Goals Made 26.9 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 63.5
Field Goal % 45.5% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 47.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 16.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 18.3 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 15.8
Free Throw % 73.8% 76.5%
Ball Control ILL TEX
Rebounds 39.1 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 8.9
Turnovers 9.1 7.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.6
Steals 3.8 5.1
Fouls 12.6 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL TEX
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 72.7
% of Possessions with ILL TEX
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 57.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 20.2%
Player Fouled 23.5% 17.7%
Turnover 12.8% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL TEX
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 33.2% 24.7%