NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL PSU
Points 83.1 74.1
Total Points   157.2
Points From 2-Pointers 43.8 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 19.4
Points From Free Throws 19.9 14.2
Shooting ILL PSU
Field Goals Made 28.4 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 62.3
Field Goal % 48.4% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 43.5
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 19.9 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 27.0 19.0
Free Throw % 73.8% 74.9%
Ball Control ILL PSU
Rebounds 42.5 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 21.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 8.3
Turnovers 10.3 7.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.0
Steals 4.0 5.8
Fouls 14.1 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL PSU
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 73.4
% of Possessions with ILL PSU
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 52.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 22.7%
Player Fouled 23.8% 19.3%
Turnover 14.1% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL PSU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 37.2% 21.7%