NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY VT
Points 73.9 70.7
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 25.1
Points From Free Throws 13.5 10.4
Shooting DAY VT
Field Goals Made 26.1 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 58.0
Field Goal % 49.0% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 13.5 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 13.0
Free Throw % 74.7% 79.8%
Ball Control DAY VT
Rebounds 32.7 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 7.2
Turnovers 9.8 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.3
Steals 5.0 4.6
Fouls 12.7 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY VT
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 64.1 65.7
% of Possessions with DAY VT
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 34.0%
Player Fouled 21.0% 18.9%
Turnover 14.6% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY VT
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 21.8%