NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM TROY
Points 68.8 74.8
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 24.8
Points From Free Throws 17.4 18.1
Shooting USM TROY
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.5 58.7
Field Goal % 43.2% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 44.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 17.4 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 24.6
Free Throw % 70.5% 73.4%
Ball Control USM TROY
Rebounds 34.6 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 12.5
Turnovers 14.6 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.7
Steals 7.5 11.4
Fouls 16.3 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM TROY
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 73.8
% of Possessions with USM TROY
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 20.4% 26.0%
Player Fouled 23.3% 22.2%
Turnover 19.8% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 15.6% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM TROY
Shot Blocked 4.7% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 33.0%