NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE CONN
Points 66.1 83.7
Total Points   149.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 46.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 19.8
Points From Free Throws 12.7 17.0
Shooting STJOE CONN
Field Goals Made 22.9 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 63.4
Field Goal % 38.6% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 23.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 44.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 12.7 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 22.8
Free Throw % 70.7% 74.7%
Ball Control STJOE CONN
Rebounds 31.7 43.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 13.6
Turnovers 13.3 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 6.3
Steals 4.5 6.4
Fouls 16.3 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE CONN
Total Possessions 74.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 77.7
% of Possessions with STJOE CONN
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 21.4%
Player Fouled 20.5% 22.1%
Turnover 18.0% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE CONN
Shot Blocked 10.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 37.2%