NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE CONN
Points 61.4 82.1
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 28.4 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 26.6
Points From Free Throws 11.6 14.1
Shooting STJOE CONN
Field Goals Made 21.3 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 60.5
Field Goal % 36.0% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 39.9% 59.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 11.6 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 18.8
Free Throw % 71.9% 75.1%
Ball Control STJOE CONN
Rebounds 29.9 42.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 12.4
Turnovers 9.5 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 6.8
Steals 5.2 5.7
Fouls 13.5 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE CONN
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 72.2
% of Possessions with STJOE CONN
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 31.5%
Player Fouled 19.8% 19.7%
Turnover 13.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE CONN
Shot Blocked 11.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 37.2%