NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF CONN
Points 58.6 75.0
Total Points   133.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.4 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 24.3
Points From Free Throws 14.7 18.5
Shooting UCF CONN
Field Goals Made 19.5 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 53.7
Field Goal % 34.0% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 36.4% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.0 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 14.7 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 24.6
Free Throw % 68.6% 75.1%
Ball Control UCF CONN
Rebounds 33.5 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 10.3
Turnovers 9.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.0
Steals 6.3 5.0
Fouls 16.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF CONN
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 68.5
% of Possessions with UCF CONN
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 38.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 28.7%
Player Fouled 22.3% 24.7%
Turnover 13.9% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCF CONN
Shot Blocked 9.5% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 31.3%