NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF ILST
Points 70.2 59.5
Total Points   129.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.1 25.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 16.9
Points From Free Throws 13.3 16.9
Shooting UCF ILST
Field Goals Made 25.1 18.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 49.7
Field Goal % 44.2% 37.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 12.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 30.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 42.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 28.6%
Free Throws Made 13.3 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 23.1
Free Throw % 68.6% 73.0%
Ball Control UCF ILST
Rebounds 37.5 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 8.1
Turnovers 9.4 12.3
Blocked Shots 5.5 1.9
Steals 6.5 4.5
Fouls 17.6 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF ILST
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 63.1
% of Possessions with UCF ILST
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 25.3%
Player Fouled 22.8% 26.1%
Turnover 14.0% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCF ILST
Shot Blocked 3.9% 9.7%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 23.7%