NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSN AFA
Points 71.2 69.0
Total Points   140.2
Points From 2-Pointers 40.3 22.9
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 32.7
Points From Free Throws 16.4 13.3
Shooting CSN AFA
Field Goals Made 25.0 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 53.2
Field Goal % 47.3% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 11.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 22.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 13.9 30.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 16.4 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 19.4
Free Throw % 67.7% 68.7%
Ball Control CSN AFA
Rebounds 37.1 29.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 21.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 7.5
Turnovers 12.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.0
Steals 6.0 7.3
Fouls 18.4 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSN AFA
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 65.1
% of Possessions with CSN AFA
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 28.8%
3 Point Attempt 17.0% 39.3%
Player Fouled 24.6% 26.5%
Turnover 17.6% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSN AFA
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 22.0%