NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NAVY UVA
Points 50.1 70.7
Total Points   120.7
Points From 2-Pointers 25.3 40.9
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 19.0
Points From Free Throws 10.3 10.7
Shooting NAVY UVA
Field Goals Made 17.5 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 54.2
Field Goal % 31.1% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 12.6 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 34.4% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 24.9% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 10.3 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.6 17.3
Free Throw % 71.0% 62.1%
Ball Control NAVY UVA
Rebounds 33.5 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 9.1
Turnovers 10.4 7.3
Blocked Shots 1.9 8.0
Steals 3.9 5.1
Fouls 13.8 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NAVY UVA
Total Possessions 63.1
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 64.9
% of Possessions with NAVY UVA
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 50.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 24.1%
Player Fouled 19.8% 21.8%
Turnover 16.5% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NAVY UVA
Shot Blocked 14.9% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 29.1%