NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring APP MICH
Points 77.5 69.9
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 47.8 37.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 21.4
Points From Free Throws 11.1 11.2
Shooting APP MICH
Field Goals Made 30.1 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 65.2
Field Goal % 47.1% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made 23.9 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 46.3 44.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 42.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 11.1 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 15.8
Free Throw % 69.5% 70.8%
Ball Control APP MICH
Rebounds 39.5 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 11.4
Turnovers 8.5 9.8
Blocked Shots 6.1 2.8
Steals 6.1 4.4
Fouls 12.8 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats APP MICH
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 74.0
% of Possessions with APP MICH
2 Point Attempt 55.6% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 24.3%
Player Fouled 18.3% 17.6%
Turnover 11.7% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken APP MICH
Shot Blocked 4.4% 9.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 27.8%