NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU TEX
Points 69.5 75.1
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 43.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 16.3
Points From Free Throws 16.2 15.0
Shooting PSU TEX
Field Goals Made 23.3 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.8 57.0
Field Goal % 41.9% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 16.2 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 19.6
Free Throw % 74.9% 76.5%
Ball Control PSU TEX
Rebounds 30.8 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 9.6
Turnovers 11.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.6
Steals 6.5 6.0
Fouls 15.2 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU TEX
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 69.2
% of Possessions with PSU TEX
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 21.4%
Player Fouled 22.8% 21.2%
Turnover 15.4% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU TEX
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 30.0%