NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SYR UVA
Points 63.4 67.0
Total Points   130.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 38.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 21.0
Points From Free Throws 11.2 7.7
Shooting SYR UVA
Field Goals Made 23.1 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 60.3
Field Goal % 42.1% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 11.2 7.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 12.3
Free Throw % 72.8% 62.1%
Ball Control SYR UVA
Rebounds 33.8 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 10.0
Turnovers 10.6 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.7
Steals 6.3 6.1
Fouls 10.8 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SYR UVA
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 67.7
% of Possessions with SYR UVA
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 52.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 24.5%
Player Fouled 18.3% 16.2%
Turnover 15.9% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SYR UVA
Shot Blocked 8.0% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 27.5%