NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT UVA
Points 63.4 59.4
Total Points   122.8
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.9 17.6
Points From Free Throws 10.0 8.5
Shooting PITT UVA
Field Goals Made 22.4 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 56.0
Field Goal % 38.4% 40.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 30.9 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.3 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 10.0 8.5
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 13.7
Free Throw % 73.0% 62.1%
Ball Control PITT UVA
Rebounds 39.3 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 7.2
Turnovers 7.9 7.2
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.7
Steals 4.6 4.6
Fouls 11.3 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT UVA
Total Possessions 63.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 63.3
% of Possessions with PITT UVA
2 Point Attempt 40.8% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 36.1% 26.3%
Player Fouled 18.8% 17.9%
Turnover 12.4% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT UVA
Shot Blocked 8.6% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 20.1%