NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT NW
Points 73.9 68.5
Total Points   142.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 23.3
Points From Free Throws 13.8 12.8
Shooting PITT NW
Field Goals Made 25.4 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 55.7
Field Goal % 46.2% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 30.9 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.8 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 16.9
Free Throw % 73.0% 75.6%
Ball Control PITT NW
Rebounds 34.7 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 6.7
Turnovers 8.0 8.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.1
Steals 4.8 4.7
Fouls 14.7 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Northwestern

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT NW
Total Possessions 66.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 64.9
% of Possessions with PITT NW
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 29.3%
Player Fouled 22.4% 22.2%
Turnover 12.1% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT NW
Shot Blocked 5.6% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 20.1%