NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PITT NCST
Points 73.0 70.5
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 28.1 18.4
Points From Free Throws 12.8 13.9
Shooting PITT NCST
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 57.3
Field Goal % 41.9% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.5 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 12.8 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.5 19.2
Free Throw % 73.0% 72.6%
Ball Control PITT NCST
Rebounds 37.3 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 7.9
Turnovers 8.1 8.3
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.4
Steals 4.4 4.9
Fouls 14.0 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PITT NCST
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 68.3
% of Possessions with PITT NCST
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 25.0%
Player Fouled 20.1% 20.3%
Turnover 11.8% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken PITT NCST
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 22.7%