NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOF PUR
Points 63.1 79.6
Total Points   142.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.2 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 27.5
Points From Free Throws 6.3 16.4
Shooting HOF PUR
Field Goals Made 24.0 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 56.1
Field Goal % 40.0% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 41.4%
Free Throws Made 6.3 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 8.7 22.4
Free Throw % 73.2% 73.0%
Ball Control HOF PUR
Rebounds 25.9 43.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 12.5
Turnovers 8.9 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.9
Steals 5.5 4.9
Fouls 15.8 10.3

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOF PUR
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 70.6
% of Possessions with HOF PUR
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 36.9% 27.3%
Player Fouled 15.2% 23.3%
Turnover 13.1% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOF PUR
Shot Blocked 5.2% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 15.6% 38.3%