NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MURR VALP
Points 73.4 67.3
Total Points   140.7
Points From 2-Pointers 42.2 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 26.4
Points From Free Throws 11.7 8.6
Shooting MURR VALP
Field Goals Made 27.6 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 57.1
Field Goal % 48.3% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 11.7 8.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 12.3
Free Throw % 68.9% 70.2%
Ball Control MURR VALP
Rebounds 35.6 31.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 7.9
Turnovers 9.0 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.2
Steals 5.5 4.4
Fouls 12.7 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Valparaiso

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MURR VALP
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 64.9
% of Possessions with MURR VALP
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 31.5%
Player Fouled 19.8% 18.9%
Turnover 13.5% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MURR VALP
Shot Blocked 5.6% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 23.0%