NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU UVA
Points 60.3 58.6
Total Points   118.9
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 16.1
Points From Free Throws 10.0 9.2
Shooting CSU UVA
Field Goals Made 22.1 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.3 56.3
Field Goal % 42.2% 39.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.6 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 41.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 10.0 9.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.4 14.8
Free Throw % 74.7% 62.1%
Ball Control CSU UVA
Rebounds 35.6 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 8.8
Turnovers 10.1 6.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.0
Steals 4.1 5.5
Fouls 12.2 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU UVA
Total Possessions 63.1
Effective Scoring Chances 60.1 65.1
% of Possessions with CSU UVA
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 54.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 22.3%
Player Fouled 20.1% 19.3%
Turnover 16.1% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU UVA
Shot Blocked 7.3% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 23.7%