NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARK CONN
Points 63.3 84.0
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 12.4 22.0
Points From Free Throws 18.4 19.7
Shooting ARK CONN
Field Goals Made 20.4 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 59.2
Field Goal % 36.7% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 40.0% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 15.0 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 27.7% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 18.4 19.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 26.3
Free Throw % 76.5% 75.1%
Ball Control ARK CONN
Rebounds 30.1 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 11.6
Turnovers 9.8 8.5
Blocked Shots 4.2 4.4
Steals 4.8 5.2
Fouls 17.5 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARK CONN
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 74.7
% of Possessions with ARK CONN
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 24.8%
Player Fouled 25.1% 24.4%
Turnover 13.7% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARK CONN
Shot Blocked 7.6% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 34.0%