NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST TXST
Points 76.5 71.0
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 44.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 11.2
Points From Free Throws 15.7 15.6
Shooting ARST TXST
Field Goals Made 26.4 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 58.8
Field Goal % 44.5% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 47.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 3.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 11.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 15.7 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 22.1
Free Throw % 70.2% 70.3%
Ball Control ARST TXST
Rebounds 38.1 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 10.0
Turnovers 10.2 9.8
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.8
Steals 5.4 6.2
Fouls 15.7 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST TXST
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 71.6
% of Possessions with ARST TXST
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 57.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 13.1%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.9%
Turnover 14.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST TXST
Shot Blocked 6.5% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 27.5%