NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILST NKU
Points 70.1 68.5
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 18.5
Points From Free Throws 13.5 12.0
Shooting ILST NKU
Field Goals Made 25.0 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 57.0
Field Goal % 45.7% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.0 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.0% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 13.5 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 16.4
Free Throw % 73.0% 73.1%
Ball Control ILST NKU
Rebounds 35.5 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.7
Turnovers 11.8 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.1
Steals 5.0 6.1
Fouls 14.6 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILST NKU
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 67.1
% of Possessions with ILST NKU
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 26.4%
Player Fouled 22.6% 21.3%
Turnover 17.2% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILST NKU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 25.5%