NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SEMO PFW
Points 63.5 79.3
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 20.1
Points From Free Throws 10.9 16.1
Shooting SEMO PFW
Field Goals Made 23.6 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 57.5
Field Goal % 41.4% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 10.9 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 22.4
Free Throw % 70.6% 71.8%
Ball Control SEMO PFW
Rebounds 33.7 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 7.3
Turnovers 14.6 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.1
Steals 4.3 8.7
Fouls 17.3 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: SE Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SEMO PFW
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 71.1
% of Possessions with SEMO PFW
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 25.0%
Player Fouled 19.3% 23.6%
Turnover 19.9% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SEMO PFW
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 22.0%