NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL WMU
Points 82.0 74.6
Total Points   156.6
Points From 2-Pointers 45.2 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 23.5
Points From Free Throws 17.1 9.9
Shooting TOL WMU
Field Goals Made 29.2 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 59.6
Field Goal % 48.7% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 17.1 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.0 16.2
Free Throw % 74.2% 61.5%
Ball Control TOL WMU
Rebounds 32.9 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 11.6
Turnovers 8.6 13.2
Blocked Shots 1.3 3.6
Steals 7.2 4.2
Fouls 14.0 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL WMU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 70.9
% of Possessions with TOL WMU
2 Point Attempt 50.7% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 27.3%
Player Fouled 23.0% 19.3%
Turnover 11.9% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL WMU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 2.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 33.3%