NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL EMU
Points 83.5 71.5
Total Points   155.1
Points From 2-Pointers 48.0 45.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 17.6
Points From Free Throws 16.2 8.3
Shooting TOL EMU
Field Goals Made 30.4 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 59.4
Field Goal % 52.1% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.0 22.9
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 59.0% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 16.2 8.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 12.4
Free Throw % 74.2% 66.6%
Ball Control TOL EMU
Rebounds 33.9 30.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 8.3
Turnovers 8.4 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.3
Steals 7.0 5.0
Fouls 12.0 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: E Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL EMU
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 67.5
% of Possessions with TOL EMU
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 50.9%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 23.5%
Player Fouled 22.6% 17.0%
Turnover 11.9% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL EMU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 25.2%