NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW ILST
Points 71.3 68.1
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 18.1
Points From Free Throws 13.0 14.2
Shooting UNCW ILST
Field Goals Made 25.6 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 52.3
Field Goal % 44.7% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.6 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 13.0 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 19.5
Free Throw % 77.5% 73.0%
Ball Control UNCW ILST
Rebounds 32.1 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 9.1
Turnovers 7.3 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 1.8
Steals 4.4 3.2
Fouls 16.3 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW ILST
Total Possessions 65.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 64.5
% of Possessions with UNCW ILST
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 25.2%
Player Fouled 22.7% 24.9%
Turnover 11.2% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW ILST
Shot Blocked 3.4% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 29.0%