NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU PUR
Points 67.1 83.4
Total Points   150.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 22.7
Points From Free Throws 10.6 22.0
Shooting FSU PUR
Field Goals Made 25.5 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 54.3
Field Goal % 41.0% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 40.3%
Free Throws Made 10.6 22.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 30.2
Free Throw % 70.5% 73.0%
Ball Control FSU PUR
Rebounds 26.2 44.9
Rebounds - Defensive 17.8 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 14.3
Turnovers 9.1 12.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 8.1 4.5
Fouls 20.3 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU PUR
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 73.7
% of Possessions with FSU PUR
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 21.5%
Player Fouled 18.5% 28.2%
Turnover 12.6% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 11.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU PUR
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 44.6%