NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU WIS
Points 72.0 69.1
Total Points   141.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 22.9
Points From Free Throws 12.0 13.9
Shooting MSU WIS
Field Goals Made 26.8 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 55.1
Field Goal % 49.1% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.2 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 39.6% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 12.0 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 18.5
Free Throw % 72.5% 75.1%
Ball Control MSU WIS
Rebounds 32.0 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 8.6
Turnovers 9.3 9.7
Blocked Shots 4.0 1.8
Steals 5.2 4.9
Fouls 16.1 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU WIS
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 65.9
% of Possessions with MSU WIS
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 29.1%
Player Fouled 21.9% 24.1%
Turnover 13.8% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU WIS
Shot Blocked 3.3% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 25.7%