NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU UK
Points 76.2 78.1
Total Points   154.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.4 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 28.4
Points From Free Throws 14.6 13.6
Shooting MSU UK
Field Goals Made 26.9 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.9 60.0
Field Goal % 42.2% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 18.1
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 14.6 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 17.4
Free Throw % 72.5% 78.2%
Ball Control MSU UK
Rebounds 37.6 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 8.0
Turnovers 9.2 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.5 5.8
Steals 6.3 5.5
Fouls 14.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU UK
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 70.3
% of Possessions with MSU UK
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 29.6%
Player Fouled 20.7% 19.9%
Turnover 12.5% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU UK
Shot Blocked 9.8% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 23.3%