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N Carolina at Louisville
Sat Feb 22, 2020
4:00pm ET
Louisville, KY
N Carolina at Louisville: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Louisville by 10.5, Total Points: 145
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | UNC | adv | LOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 21-16-0 | 13-18-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 13-10-0 | 9-11-1 | |
| Streak | L1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 1-4-0 | |
| Last 10 | 5-5-0 | 3-7-0 | |
| Home | 8-7-0 | 5-12-1 | |
| Away | 13-9-0 | 8-6-0 |
N Carolina Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Radford | -18.5 | W by 16 | -2.5 |
| 11/12 | Home | Lehigh | -24.0 | W by 22 | -2.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | UC Riverside | -23.5 | W by 25 | +1.5 |
| 11/22 | Neutral | N Iowa | -11.5 | W by 22 | +10.5 |
| 11/23 | Neutral | Villanova | -2.5 | L by 2 | -4.5 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | Arkansas | -3.5 | W by 15 | +11.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Tennessee | -2.5 | W by 8 | +5.5 |
| 12/02 | Home | Florida St | -12.0 | W by 8 | -4.0 |
| 12/05 | Neutral | Connecticut | +5.5 | L by 11 | -5.5 |
| 12/16 | Neutral | Kentucky | -1.0 | L by 4 | -5.0 |
| 12/20 | Neutral | Oklahoma | -3.0 | W by 12 | +9.0 |
| 12/29 | Home | Charl South | -30.5 | W by 45 | +14.5 |
| 01/02 | Away | Pittsburgh | -4.0 | W by 13 | +9.0 |
| 01/06 | Away | Clemson | +3.0 | W by 10 | +13.0 |
| 01/10 | Away | NC State | -3.0 | W by 13 | +10.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | Syracuse | -12.0 | W by 36 | +24.0 |
| 01/17 | Home | Louisville | -21.0 | W by 16 | -5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Boston Col | -7.5 | W by 10 | +2.5 |
| 01/22 | Home | Wake Forest | -8.0 | W by 21 | +13.0 |
| 01/27 | Away | Florida St | -6.5 | W by 7 | +0.5 |
| 01/30 | Away | GA Tech | -8.5 | L by 1 | -9.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Duke | -4.5 | W by 9 | +4.5 |
| 02/06 | Home | Clemson | -6.5 | L by 4 | -10.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | Miami | -4.0 | W by 3 | -1.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Syracuse | -8.0 | L by 7 | -15.0 |
| 02/17 | Home | VA Tech | -11.0 | W by 15 | +4.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Virginia | -2.5 | W by 10 | +7.5 |
| 02/26 | Home | Miami | -14.0 | W by 4 | -10.0 |
| 03/02 | Home | NC State | -11.0 | W by 9 | -2.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | Notre Dame | -16.0 | W by 33 | +17.0 |
| 03/09 | Away | Duke | +4.5 | W by 5 | +9.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Florida St | -11.0 | W by 25 | +14.0 |
| 03/15 | Neutral | Pittsburgh | -7.5 | W by 7 | -0.5 |
| 03/16 | Neutral | NC State | -10.0 | L by 8 | -18.0 |
| 03/21 | Neutral | Wagner | -25.5 | W by 28 | +2.5 |
| 03/23 | Neutral | Michigan St | -4.0 | W by 16 | +12.0 |
| 03/28 | Neutral | Alabama | -4.5 | L by 2 | -6.5 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Maryland BC | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Chattanooga | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Coppin St | -17.5 | W by 20 | +2.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Texas | +17.5 | L by 1 | +16.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Indiana | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | N Mex State | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Bellarmine | -5.5 | W by 5 | -0.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | VA Tech | +14.0 | L by 7 | +7.0 |
| 12/09 | Away | DePaul | +2.0 | L by 7 | -5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Arkansas St | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Pepperdine | -1.0 | W by 22 | +21.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Kentucky | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Virginia | +15.5 | L by 24 | -8.5 |
| 01/06 | Home | Pittsburgh | +8.5 | L by 13 | -4.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Miami | +16.5 | W by 9 | +25.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | NC State | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | N Carolina | +21.0 | L by 16 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Wake Forest | +16.0 | L by 25 | -9.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Duke | +14.0 | L by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Virginia | +9.0 | L by 17 | -8.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Clemson | +16.0 | L by 6 | +10.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Florida St | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Syracuse | +8.5 | L by 2 | +6.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | GA Tech | -1.0 | W by 12 | +11.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Boston Col | +9.5 | L by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | +12.5 | L by 27 | -14.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Notre Dame | -3.0 | L by 22 | -25.0 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +20.5 | L by 25 | -4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 6 | -1.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | VA Tech | +7.5 | L by 16 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | Boston Col | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| LOU -10.5 | Open | -10.0 | High | -10.5 |
| Last | -9.5 | Low | -9.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2014-2015 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1989 games where the closing line favored the home team by 9.5 to 11.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Louisville won the game 1704 times (85.7%).
- The team like North Carolina won the game 285 times (14.3%).
- The team like North Carolina did better against the spread, going 1002-957-30 (51.1% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.2 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2016-2017 NCAA Basketball season there have been 4857 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 2397-2362-98 (50.4% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.1 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -10.5 | -10.5 | -10.5 |
| Open | -9.0 | -9.5 | -9.5 |
| History | |||
| 02/22 04:05 PM | -- | -10.5 | -- |
| 02/22 03:59 PM | -10.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 03:54 PM | -- | -10.5 | -- |
| 02/22 03:05 PM | -- | -10.5 | -- |
| 02/22 02:55 PM | -- | -- | -10.5 |
| 02/22 02:48 PM | -10.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 02:02 PM | -10.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 01:55 PM | -- | -9.5 | -- |
| 02/22 01:55 PM | -- | -- | -9.5 |
| 02/22 01:23 PM | -9.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 01:15 PM | -- | -- | -9.0 |
| 02/22 12:52 PM | -9.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 12:24 PM | -- | -9.0 | -- |
| 02/22 12:00 PM | -9.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 11:16 AM | -- | -9.5 | -- |
| 02/22 11:01 AM | -9.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 10:17 AM | -9.5 | -- | -- |
| 02/22 12:14 AM | -9.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/21 11:14 PM | -- | -9.0 | -- |
| 02/21 10:35 PM | -- | -- | -9.0 |
| 02/21 10:15 PM | -- | -- | -9.5 |
| 02/21 08:45 PM | -9.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/21 08:09 PM | -9.0 | -- | -- |
| 02/21 07:44 PM | -- | -9.5 | -- |
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