NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC LOU
Points 88.0 66.4
Total Points   154.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 14.5
Points From Free Throws 19.4 15.5
Shooting UNC LOU
Field Goals Made 29.8 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 57.9
Field Goal % 50.1% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 28.6%
Free Throws Made 19.4 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 20.9
Free Throw % 75.4% 74.2%
Ball Control UNC LOU
Rebounds 40.4 30.5
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 7.5
Turnovers 8.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.7
Steals 6.8 4.1
Fouls 17.0 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC LOU
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 75.1 70.0
% of Possessions with UNC LOU
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 20.4%
Player Fouled 23.2% 23.1%
Turnover 12.0% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC LOU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 19.9%