NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC MIA
Points 84.4 69.3
Total Points   153.7
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.2 24.6
Points From Free Throws 13.3 9.9
Shooting UNC MIA
Field Goals Made 30.0 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 66.7 62.8
Field Goal % 45.0% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 29.8 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 13.3 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 13.9
Free Throw % 75.4% 71.6%
Ball Control UNC MIA
Rebounds 44.0 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 31.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 7.9
Turnovers 8.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.1
Steals 6.3 5.0
Fouls 13.3 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC MIA
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 77.6 70.8
% of Possessions with UNC MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 34.1% 29.6%
Player Fouled 17.2% 18.2%
Turnover 11.6% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC MIA
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 20.2%