NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC PITT
Points 75.1 71.0
Total Points   146.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 26.1
Points From Free Throws 15.8 12.4
Shooting UNC PITT
Field Goals Made 25.9 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 62.3
Field Goal % 43.3% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 44.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 15.8 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 17.0
Free Throw % 75.4% 73.0%
Ball Control UNC PITT
Rebounds 40.6 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.8 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 8.8
Turnovers 8.4 7.2
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.7
Steals 4.1 4.6
Fouls 14.7 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC PITT
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 72.0
% of Possessions with UNC PITT
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 31.8%
Player Fouled 21.6% 20.8%
Turnover 12.0% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC PITT
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 22.3%