NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST BAY
Points 69.2 82.7
Total Points   151.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 25.0
Points From Free Throws 12.5 17.1
Shooting TST BAY
Field Goals Made 25.4 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 55.8
Field Goal % 43.9% 51.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 39.2%
Free Throws Made 12.5 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 23.4
Free Throw % 75.8% 73.1%
Ball Control TST BAY
Rebounds 26.3 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 18.5 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 12.2
Turnovers 9.7 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.1
Steals 7.4 5.2
Fouls 17.0 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST BAY
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 70.6
% of Possessions with TST BAY
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 25.6%
Player Fouled 20.6% 24.4%
Turnover 13.9% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST BAY
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 39.7%