NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU MSST
Points 71.1 75.8
Total Points   146.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 22.4
Points From Free Throws 14.5 14.2
Shooting LSU MSST
Field Goals Made 24.7 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 58.0
Field Goal % 44.5% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 14.5 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 21.7
Free Throw % 73.3% 65.5%
Ball Control LSU MSST
Rebounds 32.3 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 11.9
Turnovers 13.2 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.3
Steals 7.2 9.1
Fouls 15.1 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: LSU

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU MSST
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 71.8
% of Possessions with LSU MSST
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.7% 27.4%
Player Fouled 20.0% 20.9%
Turnover 18.3% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 12.7% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU MSST
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 33.8%