NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB FLA
Points 85.5 75.6
Total Points   161.1
Points From 2-Pointers 45.0 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 17.1
Points From Free Throws 20.3 23.6
Shooting AUB FLA
Field Goals Made 29.2 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 62.4
Field Goal % 47.4% 37.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 44.0
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 39.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 20.3 23.6
Free Throws Attempted 27.2 32.3
Free Throw % 74.8% 73.2%
Ball Control AUB FLA
Rebounds 38.2 41.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 15.7
Turnovers 9.2 10.4
Blocked Shots 5.7 4.2
Steals 6.7 6.2
Fouls 18.6 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB FLA
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 77.5 81.8
% of Possessions with AUB FLA
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 19.5%
Player Fouled 23.5% 24.3%
Turnover 12.0% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB FLA
Shot Blocked 6.9% 9.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 35.9%