NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIZZ ARK
Points 74.2 78.0
Total Points   152.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 18.0
Points From Free Throws 19.1 25.1
Shooting MIZZ ARK
Field Goals Made 24.5 23.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 51.7
Field Goal % 42.4% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 19.1 25.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 32.8
Free Throw % 78.9% 76.5%
Ball Control MIZZ ARK
Rebounds 32.0 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 9.4
Turnovers 10.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.2
Steals 6.6 5.8
Fouls 21.8 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIZZ ARK
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 71.5
% of Possessions with MIZZ ARK
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 21.2%
Player Fouled 24.7% 29.4%
Turnover 14.5% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIZZ ARK
Shot Blocked 8.3% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 28.8%