NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU MISS
Points 75.7 76.6
Total Points   152.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 23.7
Points From Free Throws 16.2 15.4
Shooting LSU MISS
Field Goals Made 25.8 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 59.2
Field Goal % 44.1% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 16.2 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 21.2
Free Throw % 73.3% 73.0%
Ball Control LSU MISS
Rebounds 37.2 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 10.3
Turnovers 12.3 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.7
Steals 6.6 8.5
Fouls 14.8 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU MISS
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 72.4
% of Possessions with LSU MISS
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 26.5%
Player Fouled 19.5% 20.5%
Turnover 17.0% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU MISS
Shot Blocked 9.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.1% 28.9%